Shtetet e Bashkuara dhe Irani ran\u00eb dakord p\u00ebr nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushim dyjavor, t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsuar nga Pakistani, i cili bazohet n\u00eb rihapjen e Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit nga Irani. Njoftimi erdhi m\u00eb pak se dy or\u00eb para se t\u00eb skadonte afati i vendosur nga presidenti amerikan, Donald Trump, n\u00eb or\u00ebn 20:00 t\u00eb dat\u00ebs 7 prill. Tregjet globale u rrit\u00ebn. \u00c7mimet e naft\u00ebs ran\u00eb. Lider\u00eb nga e gjith\u00eb bota shpreh\u00ebn leht\u00ebsim. Por, arm\u00ebpushimi po d\u00ebshmon t\u00eb jet\u00eb i brisht\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Sulme nga Irani u raportuan n\u00eb shtetet arabe t\u00eb Gjirit Persik, vet\u00ebm pak or\u00eb pasi ndalesa e armiq\u00ebsive hyri n\u00eb fuqi. Izraeli, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, vazhdoi sulmet n\u00eb Liban ndaj Hezbollahut, grup i lidhur me Iranin, t\u00eb cilin Uashingtoni e konsideron organizat\u00eb terroriste. Bisedimet n\u00eb Islamabad p\u00ebr t\u00eb siguruar nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb p\u00ebrhershme paqeje do t\u00eb fillojn\u00eb m\u00eb 10 prill.<\/p>\n
T\u00eb dyja pal\u00ebt kan\u00eb th\u00ebn\u00eb se arm\u00ebpushimi \u00ebsht\u00eb i p\u00ebrkohsh\u00ebm dhe se nuk p\u00ebrb\u00ebn p\u00ebrfundim t\u00eb luft\u00ebs. Cilat jan\u00eb tri gj\u00ebra q\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktojn\u00eb n\u00ebse arm\u00ebpushimi do t\u00eb kthehet n\u00eb nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb paqes, apo thjesht do t\u00eb sh\u00ebnoj\u00eb nj\u00eb pushim n\u00eb luftime?<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr dekada t\u00eb t\u00ebra,\u00a0Ngushtica e Hormuzit\u00a0trajtohet si di\u00e7ka e ngjashme me nj\u00eb pron\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt globale. Ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb kalim i ngusht\u00eb, me nj\u00eb kanal transporti detar prej 3.7 kilometrash, midis Iranit dhe Omanit, p\u00ebrmes t\u00eb cilit af\u00ebrsisht nj\u00eb e pesta e naft\u00ebs dhe gazit t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm natyror n\u00eb bot\u00eb ka qarkulluar lirsh\u00ebm, pa pengesa dhe pa taksa. Kjo epok\u00eb tani mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb mbaruar.<\/p>\n
Korniza e arm\u00ebpushimit thuhet se p\u00ebrfshin nj\u00eb dispozit\u00eb q\u00eb i lejon si Iranit, ashtu edhe Omanit t\u00eb mbledhin tarifa transiti nga anijet q\u00eb kalojn\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebr ngushtic\u00eb. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb pa precedent. Konventa e Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara mbi Ligjin e Detit i ndalon qartazi shtetet me uj\u00ebra territoriale n\u00eb ngushtic\u00eb, t\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb tarifa p\u00ebr kalimin. Sistemi i Iranit, tashm\u00eb funksional n\u00eb praktik\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i p\u00ebrpunuar sesa nj\u00eb pik\u00eb e thjesht\u00eb pagese.<\/p>\n
Trupat e Gard\u00ebs Revolucionare Islamike (IRGC) thuhet se kan\u00eb zhvilluar nj\u00eb sistem rangimi p\u00ebr shtetet, ku anijet nga vendet q\u00eb konsiderohen miq\u00ebsore, p\u00ebrfitojn\u00eb kushte m\u00eb t\u00eb favorshme. Pasi tarifa paguhet, IRGC-ja l\u00ebshon nj\u00eb kod t\u00eb lejes dhe udh\u00ebzime p\u00ebr rrug\u00ebn. Anijet pritet t\u00eb val\u00ebvisin flamurin e vendit q\u00eb negocion kalimin e tyre.<\/p>\n
Por, kush paguan n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb? P\u00ebrgjigjja instiktive konsumator\u00ebt global\u00eb rezulton t\u00eb jet\u00eb kryesisht e gabuar, sipas Guntram Wolffit, bashk\u00ebpun\u00ebtor i lart\u00eb n\u00eb organizat\u00ebn k\u00ebrkimore Bruegel, me seli n\u00eb Bruksel. Meqen\u00ebse shtetet arabe n\u00eb Gjirin Persik jan\u00eb p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebse p\u00ebr af\u00ebrsisht 20 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb furnizimeve globale me naft\u00eb, ato thithin pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb \u00e7do takse t\u00eb vendosur mbi ato furnizime.<\/p>\n
\u201cShtetet e Gjirit do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb paguajn\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb \u2013 sipas llogaritjeve t\u00eb mia, rreth 80 ose 85 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb vler\u00ebs s\u00eb taks\u00ebs. Nd\u00ebrsa, konsumator\u00ebt global\u00eb do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrballojn\u00eb vet\u00ebm rreth 20 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb kostos s\u00eb taks\u00ebs\u201d,<\/em>\u00a0thot\u00eb Wolff p\u00ebr Radion Evropa e Lir\u00eb.<\/p>\n Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, p\u00ebr konsumator\u00ebt e zakonsh\u00ebm, taksa ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb \u201ce padukshme\u201d. P\u00ebr Riadin, Abu Dabin dhe Kuvajtin, do t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb fatur\u00eb e p\u00ebrs\u00ebritur q\u00eb do t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb n\u00eb fitimet e tyre. E nj\u00ebjta logjik\u00eb vlen edhe p\u00ebrtej naft\u00ebs. Plehrat, petrokimikatet dhe mallrat e tjera me origjin\u00eb nga Gjiri p\u00ebrballen me nj\u00eb struktur\u00eb t\u00eb ngjashme incidence.<\/p>\n Shtetet e Gjirit, pasi kan\u00eb p\u00ebrjetuar tashm\u00eb jav\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00ebra nd\u00ebrprerjesh p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb luft\u00ebs, tani p\u00ebrballen me perspektiv\u00ebn e subvencionimit t\u00eb p\u00ebrhersh\u00ebm t\u00eb rind\u00ebrtimit t\u00eb Iranit, p\u00ebrmes \u00e7mimeve q\u00eb paguajn\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb eksportuar burimet e tyre. Zyrtar\u00ebt iranian\u00eb kan\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb q\u00ebllim.<\/p>\n \u201cSituata n\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit nuk do t\u00eb kthehet si para luft\u00ebs\u201d,<\/em>\u00a0shkroi muajin e kaluar n\u00eb X kryetari i Parlamentit iranian, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf.<\/p>\n T\u00eb pasurohet apo t\u00eb mos pasurohet uranium?<\/strong><\/p>\n Kur njoftoi p\u00ebr arm\u00ebpushimin, Trump tha se propozimi 10-pik\u00ebsh i Iranit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb baz\u00eb e zbatueshme, mbi t\u00eb cil\u00ebn mund t\u00eb negociohet. V\u00ebzhguesit thon\u00eb se t\u00eb dyja pal\u00ebt jan\u00eb shum\u00eb larg n\u00eb q\u00ebndrimet e tyre dhe askund nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb hendeku m\u00eb i duksh\u00ebm sesa n\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtjen e programit b\u00ebrthamor t\u00eb Iranit.<\/p>\n Sipas agjencis\u00eb s\u00eb lajmeve Associated Press, versioni n\u00eb gjuh\u00ebn perse i planit p\u00ebr arm\u00ebpushim p\u00ebrfshin fraz\u00ebn \u201cpranimi i pasurimit\u201d p\u00ebr programin b\u00ebrthamor t\u00eb Iranit di\u00e7ka q\u00eb mungon n\u00eb versionet n\u00eb anglisht, q\u00eb u ndan\u00eb gazetar\u00ebve diplomat\u00ebt iranian\u00eb. P\u00ebr ta komplikuar \u00e7\u00ebshtjen, Trump tha m\u00eb 8 prill se \u201cnuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb pasurim\u201d t\u00eb uraniumit n\u00eb Iran. N\u00eb tekstin n\u00eb gjuh\u00ebn perse t\u00eb propozimit, Irani thot\u00eb se t\u00eb dyja pal\u00ebt do t\u00eb negociojn\u00eb mbi nivelin e pasurimit.<\/p>\n \u201cSa i p\u00ebrket uraniumit, po e v\u00ebzhgojm\u00eb. E dim\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb kan\u00eb, do ta dor\u00ebzojn\u00eb dhe ne do ta marrim. Do ta marrim n\u00ebse na duhet\u201d<\/em>, tha sekretari i Mbrojtjes i SHBA-s\u00eb, Pete Hegseth, n\u00eb nj\u00eb konferenc\u00eb p\u00ebr media n\u00eb Pentagon, m\u00eb 8 prill.<\/p>\n Rezerva n\u00eb fjal\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e par\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme. Sipas organit mbik\u00ebqyr\u00ebs b\u00ebrthamor t\u00eb OKB-s\u00eb, Irani ka grumbulluar 440 kilogram\u00eb uranium t\u00eb pasuruar n\u00eb past\u00ebrti prej 60 p\u00ebr qind. Nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsuesit q\u00eb punuan p\u00ebr arm\u00ebpushim, arrit\u00ebn n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimin se zgjidhja p\u00ebr uraniumin shum\u00eb t\u00eb pasuruar t\u00eb Iranit qoft\u00eb p\u00ebrmes largimit t\u00eb tij nga vendi ose hollimit mund t\u00eb arrihet vet\u00ebm me nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje p\u00ebrfundimtare, jo me nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushim t\u00eb p\u00ebrkohsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n Rezerva e uraniumit t\u00eb Iranit, vler\u00ebsuan ata, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nga dy pikat kryesore t\u00eb negociatave t\u00eb Teheranit, dhe Teherani ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb mos e dor\u00ebzoj\u00eb at\u00eb gjat\u00eb pushimit dyjavor t\u00eb konfliktit.<\/p>\n Arm\u00ebpushimi mund t\u00eb prishet p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb\u00a0operacioneve ushtarake t\u00eb Izraelit n\u00eb Liban, t\u00eb cilat vazhduan pa nd\u00ebrprerje m\u00eb 8 prill. Zyra e kryeministrit izraelit, Benjamin Netanyahu, tha se marr\u00ebveshja nuk e p\u00ebrfshin Libanin, ku forcat izraelite kan\u00eb nisur nj\u00eb pushtim tok\u00ebsor dhe po luftojn\u00eb Hezbollahun.<\/p>\n Kryeministri pakistanez, Shahbaz Sharif, nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsi kryesor i marr\u00ebveshjes, tha t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt\u00ebn se arm\u00ebpushimi vlen edhe p\u00ebr Libanin. Mosmarr\u00ebveshja nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje teknike. Irani mb\u00ebshtet Hezbollahun dhe sulmet e vazhdueshme izraelite n\u00eb Liban mund ta v\u00ebn\u00eb Teheranin n\u00ebn presion p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrgjigjur ushtarakisht.<\/p>\n Wolff b\u00ebn nj\u00eb konstatim q\u00eb riformaton tri pikat m\u00eb lart. Irani ka demonstruar, me nj\u00eb kosto t\u00eb lart\u00eb p\u00ebr veten e tij, se nj\u00eb fuqi e mesme mund t\u00eb ushtroj\u00eb presion ekonomik paralizues mbi sistemin global, pa fituar luft\u00ebn konvencionale.<\/p>\n \u201cNuk ka shum\u00eb vende q\u00eb do t\u00eb donin ta p\u00ebrjetonin at\u00eb q\u00eb Irani ka p\u00ebrjetuar n\u00eb dy jav\u00ebt e fundit, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimet p\u00ebr zhdukjen e qytet\u00ebrimit. Pra, n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb aspekt, nuk krijon precedent. Por, krijon precedent n\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb Irani i ka treguar bot\u00ebs fuqin\u00eb e luft\u00ebs asimetrike. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb aspekt, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb disfat\u00eb strategjike p\u00ebr Shtetet e Bashkuara dhe nj\u00eb fitore strategjike p\u00ebr \u00e7do aktor q\u00eb zot\u00ebron luft\u00ebn asimetrike dhe e di se mbrojt\u00ebsi i rendit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, n\u00eb thelb, nuk arrin ta kap\u00ebrcej\u00eb at\u00eb\u201d,<\/em>\u00a0thot\u00eb Wolff.\/REL<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Shtetet e Bashkuara dhe Irani ran\u00eb dakord p\u00ebr nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushim dyjavor, t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsuar nga Pakistani, i cili bazohet n\u00eb rihapjen e Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit nga Irani. Njoftimi erdhi m\u00eb pak se dy or\u00eb para se t\u00eb skadonte afati i vendosur nga presidenti amerikan, Donald Trump, n\u00eb or\u00ebn 20:00 t\u00eb dat\u00ebs 7 prill. Tregjet globale u […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18874,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[25,21,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aktualitet","category-bota","category-nderkombetare"],"yoast_head":"\n